Hi Star,

A good place to start when trying to secure value is to look at the favourite and ask:
1/ Has it won at the distance and if not is it bred to run this distance?
2/ Does it like today's track conditions - Good, dead, slow etc
3/ Is it trained by a quality trainer with a decent Jock on top.
4/ Win strike >20%

If the answer is no to at least 3 from 4 of the points then it's worth looking at the remaining horses in the race.

If the answer is YES, to these questions, then you have to calculate a minimum acceptable price. If this is too daunting there are many services that frame markets for you at a cost.

I hope this is of some help to you, I'm not sure about your maths in your initial post, however look at it as you have to be 30% better than your opposition punters to make a profit.

The Schmile

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The Schmile

"I buy when other people are selling.”
― J. Paul Getty