19th June 2012, 12:28 PM
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Member
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Join Date: Jan 1970
Posts: 4,415
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Star,
Perhaps look at it from a different angle.
You are concentrating on the takeout factor a little too hard in my opinion.
In 100% markets there may be no value, in 140% markets there may still be good value.
Here is an example, and I'm not skiting because to me it stood out like the proverbial.
I've done very well in reality show markets over the years.
I don't know why, but I think I have a knack of reading talent and what makes people popular.
A person has to resonate with the voters, be somewhat of an underdog or hard luck story, but also have an edge. The voters are generally teen girls.
They don't vote for the pretty skinny girl, they vote for someone they can relate to.
To the point, I pegged Karise Eden on The Voice as a winner after her very first audition. She had all the factors plus the talent and an extra "quirkyness".
I took early $4.00 on Betfair and I believe the final price was $1.30 or a bit better. The market percentage when I took $4.00 was 128%.
There were also quite a few very short odds such as Rachel Leachar and Sarah De Bono, which I laid.
For what it's worth, I had overlooked Darren Percival and am still scratching my head as to how he could possibly have come second. It makes no sense when you look at past reality history. Was it the Keith Urban factor?
However, I rated Karise Eden an even money shot early and odds on after a few performances, so got huge overs on her in 128% market.
It is possible.
I rated them in this order:
1. Karise Eden
2. Sarah De Bono
3. Rachel Leachar
4. A long last Darren Percival after he murdered the Stevie Wonder song.
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