27th June 2012, 05:11 PM
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Member
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Join Date: Sep 2011
Posts: 1,494
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Star
This is a serious question that might throw up some strange answers. I am looking for some filters to smoke out the false favourites. You know the ones that are overbet.
To me, if a horse or horses are overbet then their is a good possibility that others might be better value providing the information the crowd is going with is not really factual and it is just the mob mentality taking over.
What are some of the reason a false favourite is born. If we can isolate a few of the reasons maybe that might just give us another angle to look at.
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Have you ever thought about favs which might be underbet ? Why would you want to do this you may ask. Because if your betting in the $5+ range most people are going to lose at least 8 out of every 10 races. that is going to hit your confidence levels and your nerves won't hold up.
I propose you look at finding a way of having at least a 40%+ strike rate. This might be through laying or betting. I have found many of my systems that bet on selections actually work better in the under $5 range then anywhere else. The market will be close to correct on a horses chances. If they compeltely disagree with one of my selections then I don't bet it. I got it wrong. Not the 10,000 other people having a bet.
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