27th June 2012, 07:31 PM
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Member
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Join Date: Dec 2009
Posts: 217
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by UselessBettor
Have you ever thought about favs which might be underbet ? Why would you want to do this you may ask. Because if your betting in the $5+ range most people are going to lose at least 8 out of every 10 races. that is going to hit your confidence levels and your nerves won't hold up.
I propose you look at finding a way of having at least a 40%+ strike rate. This might be through laying or betting. I have found many of my systems that bet on selections actually work better in the under $5 range then anywhere else. The market will be close to correct on a horses chances. If they compeltely disagree with one of my selections then I don't bet it. I got it wrong. Not the 10,000 other people having a bet.
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UB.
That is a very thought provoking post. At the moment I think my system hovers between that and the longer priced one. I was adjusting the rules to increase the price because initially I was getting a lot of short priced ones up but then started to look for more value.
In the last two days I have altered the qualifiers in favor of the middle ground. As a result I have had a few winners namely:
Three Selections for today
Caulfield R1 No 4 Storm Burst : Won paid $3.50
Caulfield R7 No 5 Urban Explorer : Won paid $ 4.80
Caulfield R8 No 4 Bel Sir : Lost was paying about $8.50.
You have given me some more to think about. Chasing value might just be different to chasing big prices.
Thanks.
Star
I will see if I can tighten up the prices
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