Hello Mr J,

You can get this year's spreads from:

http://www.racetab.com.au/results/AFRESULT.HTM


I had all this historical odds data once... when I changed PC's I burned it to CD but lost the CD when I moved house. Yes, I was filthy. I think I will have to pay to get it again.

So... this is what I can remember from my analysis:

- on the TAB the best return you can get is backing the away underdogs. That is, take the away team if they are given the start. This yeilded a return over the seasons of about 98.5% if I recall correctly. Which means you are still losing money of course! But it was the best you could do with a very simple system.

- Low scoring games always had the best odds. When the score is low there are less combinations, and it's harder for the fav to cover the spread. Low scoring games are nearly always when both teams have a lot on the line (like making the top .

- Field goals are much more prevalent AND the odds for winning by 5 or 7 are quite good (but still not over odds).

- Never take the draw. TAB gives terrible odds for the draw.

- There is no such thing as a sure bet. The TAB makes most money when the fav loses. I'm not sure about the TAB, but real bookies don't actually try to balance the betting on both sides. They sweat like we do on the outcome of games, not just relying on thier vig. They must heavily lay the fav. That's where most of the money is going to be. If the fav wins, they're not so well off, if it loses, its cash time. If the fav is $1.10, then bets of $10,000 are common - no one puts down $2,000 let-alone $10,000 on a $4.50 team. They will hype the fav so that you will accept shorter odds. Look at Newcastle v Dogs on the weekend. Who picked Newcastle?

so... You need to look at the hype surrounding a team. When the papers start saying that a team is championship material - you need to figure out why. It's not always because they are.

Good luck with your system! Let us know how you get on!


JL.