Quote:
Originally Posted by Star
Sometimes I feel it disrespectful to the person who I am asking a question of. Sometimes what is said might appear to be against what the general theme of what quite a few long termers here who know the ropes and have more then likely seen it all.
With repect to the Shaun and the horse Manganese. Shaun had it rated second, yet the market did not agree.
Here is my Conundrum No 64. Somebody else said if they price a horse or their ratings do and the market has it well over those odds that he believes the Market is nearly always right. So he accepts that and believes he is at fault not the market. ( or something similar, meaning the same if I have it right )
Now, this interests me greatly because I suppose one common theme through all my meanderings is looking for value, looking for the angle that the crowd and market undervalue.
So, in respect to Shaun. What should he have done in this situation. I have conflicting opinions given to me. One, disregard and let the market guide as a filter or 2. Go with what you have got. If your ratings or system selects something, and you think you have a sound policy then go with it, you can not deviate and not bet, because of factors outside of what you have judged the race on.
?
Star
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Shaun would be able to answer this based on his methodology.
1- Is it profitable to bet horses that are way over his rated odds.
2- Is it not profitable to bet horses that are way over his rated odds.
With mine occasionally circumstances happen that a horse marked,
At say $5.0 will win at $21.0 etc.
"LONG TERM FOR ME BACKING HORSES OUTSIDE THE MARKET,
iS UNPROFITABLE SO AFTER THE CURSING AND SWEARING,
i GET BACK TO THE JOB AT HAND BASED ON 1,000S AND 1,000S,
OF PREVIOUS RESULTS".
Shauns ratings may find the bigger the better.
Everybody uses different ideas to how they arrive at and bet,
Their particular selections.
You can't put it into A OR B it's what method is "PROFITABLE",
For the selections you are betting.
Cheers.