The market can only confirm our intepretation of it in hindsight. You still have to select the horse based on history. The starting price for all favs are statistically correct. The shorter the odds the higher the strike rate. You go out and back every fav then you have a quick trip to the poorhouse. Without the facts I would still state that the majority of these starting favs shortened. Hence the market is bringing some points not in history to the table. At odds on the fav is close to 50% strike rate, so the market helps but it is still 50% wrong. How much of the market is based on NOW? how much is hype? How much is based on the past and how much is based on hysteria?

Each race is a separate event, even a rematch a week later would be a totally different event. The past would show what occured. The market would have to reflect everything else that occured up till now. If that reflection it too heavily based on the past results and not on what has happened since then it is of no additional value.

If horses A,B,C,D,E.F.G and H raced each other and horse A won. If they were meeting today for a rematch, then I would like to see the market reflect that Horse A pulled up sore, and horse E was checked as a result of a stupid jockey decission and that it was fitter and ready to go this week. Does this show in the market maybe but not clearly and not all the time.

The future must be the past transitioning though the present and the more present in the equation the closer the result. Beton