20th July 2012, 10:13 PM
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Member
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Join Date: Jan 1970
Posts: 696
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by rails run
Hi Star
So if Joe Public considers your same things are fairly consistent, but they indeed aren't, then they would have applied the same bias to them as you did. I think it was Woof43 who handicaps the handicappers! But it relates best to certain conditions including tracks & distances... you just have to find which ones.
It would be good if you could poll the punters ( sounds painful) and list their top dozen decision factors ranked in order for picking winners. Then, watch for the highest ranked to fail consistently in certain conditions.
This should flush out false favs leaving overlays to gather up in a net... backing or laying 
I like the way you get things rolling Star. Keep up the good work & inquisitive mind! |
I have suggested a number of times, that you need to identify the strongest variables for the Favourite in each race and then the gap/strength between it the 2nd Favourite.
Once your identified your Variables for todays race Favourite, one would then do a percentile rank of all horses based on those identified Variables, then you normalise the difference of each of the percentile ranks. One would do that over an over for hundreds of actual races based on those variables and you would generally have an idea of the % wagered on each entrant.
Once you know the Variables that made todays race Favourite. It is then a matter of running your other 140 odd variables or whatever number you have in a multi variate analysis and what you will find is a group of other variables that will outperform todays race Favorite variable.
And if you were to do something like above, you start all your analysis from races that have first starters or those with limited form.
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