I backed Lovely Jubly last start.
It's way "unders" today. Hit the line hard last start, so may find the 1600m ok (not sure).

However, given a 2kg turnaround in weights and my belief that SB will appreciate the 1600m more, plus 10/1 odds, Sir Breakie looks a better bet to me.

It will probably start shorter than that but should still get 6/1 or so which represents a better bet than evens for LJ.

Does LJ have a 50% chance of winning the race? Don't think so - Has about 25%-33%. Therefore fair odds are $3-$4.

Does Sir Breakie have a 9% chance of winning?
I would have thought 15% at least. So anymore than $6.66 is a good price.

Whenever I've backed Adel horses in the east, they don't win, so I'll risk Lashed.

Soprana is probably my 3rd pick.

TE might be looking for 2000m.

trifecta:
SB
LJ
Soprana




[ This Message was edited by: chief on 2002-06-10 10:51 ]