Hello boys,

Looking at this system is it immediately apparent that it’s simply a variation of the old Tab#1 bet.

However, I ran it exactly as cited over a long term (13 yrs) and Chrome Prince is correct … SR 29% LOT –7.2%. If you simply substitute “Fav” for the performance criterion then the SR shifts to 34% and the LOT reduces to –5%.

You see the problem is the price/SR nexus is such that the profit is absorbed by the bookmaker/TAB.

TAB’s typically settle at 117% (15% commission + $0.05 per win bet rounding (as a hidden fee)) and bookies are set anywhere between 115% and 160% depending on what they think they can get away with.

Diehard systemateers stop reading here.

Now, most of the systems I’ve seen on this forum generate short priced horses without the strike rate to match and this is precisely the trap I fell into for the first couple of years of my punting career. Although I had my share of winners I might as well have invested my bank in a savings pass book and earned 0.9% POT.

Then I started to rate horses (using that evil creature – a computer) and run statistical analyses on my results.

I discovered that where a Fav is in my top 2 then it’s SR lifts to 40% and suddenly Faves are profitable, where the Fav is outside 2 then it has a less than 10% SR and I make money by backing my top 2 for 1:5 (Insurance) or place only.

The rating method I use is COMPLETELY statistically based and is publicly available, I wouldn’t know one end of a horse from the other …… to get the Field I count the legs and divide by 4 ………, but I DO know about numbers. The WSR of my top 2 ranges from 60% at 8 field to 43% at field 14.

An earlier post of mine pointed you in the direction of beaten distance but was decried by the pseudo cogniscenti on the basis that it takes too long …. let me tell you ………….. I rate every Australian race (other than NT) 7 days a week and to rate every horse in a full days races takes less than a minute.

All I’d like punters to do is to THINK.

Punting isn’t an easy way to make a few $$$$, but it can be VERY rewarding if you put in a little effort.

Time to go and give Mr Costello his pound of flesh.

CU, darlings, ... oh and apologies if I've offended anyone this time.

Felicity