20th May 2004, 05:01 PM
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Member
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Join Date: Jan 1970
Posts: 4,431
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Quote:
On 2004-05-20 14:06, Felicity wrote:
You see the problem is the price/SR nexus is such that the profit is absorbed by the bookmaker/TAB.
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Yes, more often than not some angle you come up with has already been factored into the price unless you can come up with something original or not readily available.
Jockey - Trainer - win S/R - Distance - Track - last start placing - beaten margin etc etc.
I found this through my research.
Quote:
I discovered that where a Fav is in my top 2 then it’s SR lifts to 40% and suddenly Faves are profitable, where the Fav is outside 2 then it has a less than 10% SR and I make money by backing my top 2 for 1:5 (Insurance) or place only.
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Yes, faves can be profitable - but only if you run the test on enough data - minimum 2 years (the more the better) and have a unique angle.
Quote:
The rating method I use is COMPLETELY statistically based and is publicly available, I wouldn’t know one end of a horse from the other …… to get the Field I count the legs and divide by 4 ………, but I DO know about numbers. The WSR of my top 2 ranges from 60% at 8 field to 43% at field 14.
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Felicity, I'm interested in your rating method, not all the details, just the basics. Is it yours or price predictor or some other software?
[ This Message was edited by: Chrome Prince on 2004-05-20 17:02 ]
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