8th August 2012, 07:30 AM
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by garyf
Interesting posts and replies there guys.
So let me ask this question so i know i am on the right path here,
Doesn't matter this thread or others using ratings be it weight, class, speed, etc,
Leads to backing overbet favorites and no matter what we use as filters,
We must all of us lose in the long term is this correct?.
And using ratings that are free is even worse like say skyform, and their panels,
A.A.P prepost, Unitab, Don Scott etc ,all these eventually no matter what we do will lead us to the poor house have i got this right or am i wrong.
Cheers.
Garyf.
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I think you need to be confident with testing your rating price is correct.
I have done lots of testing and now know over 5000 races my $2.00 rating chance wins 50% of the time (give or take 0.5%). This means if I can get $2.20 its worth a bet. (based on a 100% market price)
Often you'll find there is no value in the short prices and most of the time I'm only betting where the favourite is $4.00 but it depends on your rated price. I am yet to isolate the data by venue as I need more data to be confident of my strike rate vs rating price.
I don't see the point of a rating system having a horse priced at $2.00 when you test and find you only win 40% of the time long term.
Since your help in ratings I've been backing 3 horses per race and find I have a 51% strike rate with a $6.57 avg dividend.
garyf posts are a good read!
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