"What if the Crusaders win? Does that mean you get nothing and make a BIG loss?"
No. Just the 1 unit riding on the brumbies winning. All other futures were hedged in previous weeks to produce a profit no matter what happens. E.g, the 21.00 I had on the chiefs, I took X% of that potential payoff and bet on the brumbies. For the sharks at 150.00, I laid them over a few weeks and produced a VERY nice profit off them.
The brumbies future is basically a free bet, and it would cost me potential EV to hedge it since it's the fave. Course, I could use 1.00 of that 12.50 to back the crusaders and profit no matter what, but that's sacrificing EV for the sake of variance/distribution.
"I try not to take less than 15% overlay and also try to limit to 3 bets."
I'd like to point something out. Most of the time you think you have a large advantage (i.e. over 15%) you probally don't. It's usually smaller or not an edge at all (maybe you missed something the bookies didn't).
As long as you are more accurate than the bookies over time you should be betting anytime you think you have an advantage. If you want a buffer, I'd go lower than 15%, maybe 5%.
"If you invest your hard earned you need to treat it as an investment,not a guess.
No room in gambling for hoping."
Not sure if you're talking about yourself here or making a general statement???
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