Quote:
On 2004-05-21 14:25, Mr J wrote:
I don't like your attitude for your responses. You seem to be under the impression that I'm just a punter, well I'm not. I've been a full-time advantage player since I left high school and have learnt a few things along the way.
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I feel there is a bad wind blowing here.I do hope it calms down.
I make mention of a 15% buffer.Here's what this means.
A bookmaker assesses a game as being to hard to call.(Lets just imagine it is the Carlton/Bulldogs game).
He can't give evens each of two,so he gives $1.92 (if he really wants the business he gives $1.95).
I look at the game and think Carlton by 8 points.
With the formula I use,which is what bookmakers appear to use if you analyze line betting prices,I have Carlton at $1.68.
If you divide 1.95 by 1.68 you get 1.16 which is 16% overlay.
How difficult is it to be 8 points or so more accurate than someone else.
Look I've been losing most of my punting life.I would like to win and steering others
to win would give me satisfaction.
I'm here to learn and share.Thats all.
Mo.