14th August 2012, 08:52 PM
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Member
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Join Date: Mar 2012
Posts: 1,227
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by UselessBettor
As the odds are still the best indication of a horses chances of winning then you have to be extremely clever/lucky to beat the market consistently. This doesn't mean every race has the odds exactly right, in fact it could be a little or a lot wrong, but overall for every odd overvalued in one race by 10% there is another race where the odds are undervalued by 10%.
Our task as punters is to determine which is overvalued and which is undervalued. But its not as easy as you think it woiuld be.
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Interesting points here UB - the brain box is clicking over here (albeit slowly!)
What if one were able to predict the top 5 chances for a given race more often than the market itself. Would the remaining runners be overvalued as a group, and one or more of the top 5 selected undervalued?
LG
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The trick isn't finding profitable angles, it's finding ones you will bet through the ups and downs - UB
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