16th August 2012, 08:52 PM
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Member
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Join Date: Sep 2011
Posts: 1,561
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Luxinterior
As an extension of this with regards to favourites.... with data bases, system development software, easier access to race video analysis and more, over the past ten or so years the information available to punters has grown incredibly.
As a result of this has the win % of favourites risen?
Also has the average dividend of these favourites fallen?
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The favs percentage has remained the same.
The average dividend has remained the same.
Overall the estimate of the crowd of the favs chances has remained the same . But the overlay/underlay to the actual available odds from race to race has dimished.
It may have been 30 years ago that favs were 20% underbet on X occassions and 20% overbet on X occasions which cancel each other out. Today the 20% overbet is less likely to occur and its more like a 3% overbet or underbet range.
This is my thought on what has happened over time and has been researched by lots of people smarter then me. The strike rate is irrelevant. The average dividend is irrelevant. Its the opporuntity to take advantage of mis pricing which is relevant and the general research done by people much smarter then me (uni professors, doctrate research) indicates that the range of mispricing has been reducing more and more but especially in the last 10 years.
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