17th August 2012, 07:23 PM
|
|
Member
|
|
Join Date: Sep 2011
Posts: 1,561
|
|
Quote:
|
Originally Posted by Vortech
[QUOTE=UselessBettor]
It may have been 30 years ago that favs were 20% underbet on X occassions and 20% overbet on X occasions which cancel each other out. Today the 20% overbet is less likely to occur and its more like a 3% overbet or underbet range.
How is the 20% and the 3% overlay calculated? Is it calculated by the Max and Min range?
|
I'll find the papers again and provide the link. It was in papers on the fav vs longshot bias but I have read so many research papers I can't tell you quickly which ones looked into it and which didn't.
I suggest reading as much as you can on the fav long shot bias and its movement over time. (it hardly exists on betfair for example). |