When I make my selections for the AFL,I go back further than the last start of each team.
Assess what a team is capable of scoring and then subtracting points for poor recent form.
After round-5,I had Port capable of scoring about 109 and Richmond 65,a margin of 44 points to Port.
Since then I penalise Port 4 pts. for Adelaide loss,and another 9 for Kangas loss.
Richmond gains 2 points for Hawks win.Only 4 points for Sydney mud win and another 2 pts. for Bulldogs.Beating bottom of the ladder teams is no big deal.
So Port can kick 96 points and Richmond 73.
Port by 23,plus another 9 for home ground advantage.
32 points comes out to $1.22 Port
$5.50 Richmond.
Players missing,Wanganeen again.Don't know what to allow for that.So I don't.If you like to take 15 points off then the margin becomes 17.
Port $1.44 - Richmond $3.25
No value now.

It needs to be done now not after the game.
I spend a lot of time in my local TAB.
Favourite past-time of many punters is showing losing tickets and then saying I was gunna or I shooda.

Good Luck all.
Mo.