It is usually the most overbet horse in the race but of course this is a general statement. There are times when they are underbet as you have seen.
Using my site you can see Number had
There were
8679 selections for the System
There were
8679 races for the System
There were
1370 Winners for the System for a strike rate of
15.79%
There were
$7828.91 returned for WIN (after 5% commission) which means a Profit or loss of
$-850.09 or a percentage profit/loss of
-9.79%
Horse 2
There were
8726 selections for the System
There were
8726 races for the System
There were
1243 Winners for the System for a strike rate of
14.24%
There were
$7952.4 returned for WIN (after 5% commission) which means a Profit or loss of
$-773.6 or a percentage profit/loss of
-8.87%
Test Another System The Rules used were : horseNumber = 2
Horse 3:
There were
8756 selections for the System
There were
8756 races for the System
There were
1131 Winners for the System for a strike rate of
12.92%
There were
$8477.37 returned for WIN (after 5% commission) which means a Profit or loss of
$-278.63 or a percentage profit/loss of
-3.18%
Test Another System The Rules used were : horseNumber = 3
Horse Number 8:
There were
100159 horse form lines in the database at this point in time. We update when we get time.
There were
7897 selections for the System
There were
7897 races for the System
There were
703 Winners for the System for a strike rate of
8.9%
There were
$7341.28 returned for WIN (after 5% commission) which means a Profit or loss of
$-555.72 or a percentage profit/loss of
-7.04%
Test Another System The Rules used were : horseNumber = 8
I'll let you run other numbers but above I have chosen saddle clothes 2,3 and 8. As you can see all of these numbers do better then saddle cloth 1.