28th August 2012, 07:39 PM
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Member
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Join Date: Sep 2011
Posts: 1,561
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Star
UB
Can you explain your statement for me about the favourite -- longshot bias on the tote.
I understand the Favourite part but the longshot intrigues me. Do you have definite figures or is it just that you have ancedotal evidence that this is so.
It is something I have never thought off, so it is quite interesting.
Star
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Its well researched. The evidence shows (espeically with bookies and the tab's) that the favourites are underbet(more value) and the longshots are overbet (less value). This bias is eroded significantly on betfair though and it has been found to be non existant.
Personally I think it isn't eroded on betfair BUT its important to understand which markets it is and isn't affecting. Any market which is not close to 100% is definitely not worth trying to use it on. But those closer to 100% do on occassions follow very similar pricing to the tabs, which suggests that it still exists if the weight of dumb money is available. Generally though on betfair the dumb money is not available in large enough quantities for it to be taken advantage of.
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