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Old 29th August 2012, 07:59 AM
Chrome Prince Chrome Prince is offline
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Join Date: Jan 1970
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Barny
I've observed that the more bets you have, the less POT you'll be able to achieve.


This is true with systems because inherently punters look for profitable strategies and sometimes throw out the baby with the bath water.
Looking for returns, it is easy to overlook longer term profitable strategies.
Unfortunately for the most part, while looking for these profitable strategies, one is influenced by a spike in returns.
These spikes are often caused by pricing or result anomolies, so are often doomed. Example: that glossy mag.

Now and then one can come across gold.

The opening statement is so true of systems because an edge is not sustainable to the degree that results produce, because the edge cannot be that high or bookies would go broke. But again, sometimes one can identify a sniper situation and sit patiently in the prone position waiting for someone to ascend the bell tower. Take a slow breath and pull the trigger. It's likely that because the bets are so rare that anyone else has caught on, because the impact all round is insignficant to the opposition.

Where the opening statement is wrong (with all due respect and I know it doesn't cover what I'm about to write), is arbitrage. The more bets you have, the higher the POT, because the risk to reward ratio is so low.
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