10th September 2012, 12:29 PM
|
|
Member
|
|
Join Date: Jan 1970
Posts: 1,096
|
|
Barrier Position revisited
The importance or otherwise of the inside barrier positions intrigued me so I have rechecked it with a modified approach.
Retested only from 2005 to the 8th of Sep. this year, but I taken into account that if a horse in any barrier position is scratched then all horses outside of it will be moved one position inside, therefore for instance if No. 1 Bar scratched No 2 automatically starts from barrier one and also the others move one inside as well.
I allowed for all scratchings not just the No 1. and adjusted the starting barrier positions for all horses in my database accordingly.
(kept the original BP as well of course)
Sometimes with late scratching at the barrier this shifting will not happen but for all practical purposes, not having a horse inside is as good as starting from that empty barrier, it only takes a step to move towards the rail instead of having to pass the horse inside by some lengths before shifting.
Also if a win dividend was over $20 I only allowed $20 so as not to distort the results, did not want to eliminate it altogether because a win is still a win!
My conclusion is that if you can find this stat. (and I'm sure there is a more detailed one available on the net) it is worthwhile considering.
On some tracks and distances the inside barriers are actually worse, but knowing that, is also an advantage.
My strike-rate improved by almost 1.8% and while this may be insignificant depending on the odds range one is betting, to me it is very significant indeed, since I'm betting in the $6 and up range.
I only checked the tracks I bet on and that is not many.
I post the ones asked for previously Doomben 1010 and Colac 1000.
Both show a profit for barrier one.
|