14th September 2012, 05:45 PM
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Member
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Join Date: Dec 2010
Posts: 1,091
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The Key to the Mint
This caper is actually quite easy when you give away the notion of form, scrape back to the bare boards everything you've ever learned about handicapping, and start afresh ..... and realise that every horse has a chance to win.
I've found several things over the past few years.
Racing is full of non-negotiables, but all that these tried and true rules do is put you into overbet territory ..... Ya cannot win, the odds prevent that.
People shy away from systems where there is only a hundred or a couple of hundred selections that form the basis of the system ..... regardless of what period the data was collected over, and regardless of how logical the system is. Scientific sampling can be productively used in the area of system development, but logic is paramount.
My number one tip ..... Look for horses with little exposed form, this is where the money is to be made ..... Read the trainer's mind ..... Known Unknowns as one D. Rumsfled once said. Racing is cyclical due to punters jumping on the latest fad (too late usually) ..... If you're not following the crowd, then you're not subject to the cyclical nature of racing, ergo, you can be confident your methods will continue to hold up.
It's not for everyone, but I've already got my selections for the weekend, and they're decent odds too.
I implore you to research the posts of P57, jacfin, wesmip1 and crash and look for comments made by them which 'fly in the face' of conventional wisdom.
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