You're completely igorning the ability (or lack thereof) of the dog LG. To back a winner at the dogs you need to do a speed map, ascertain what habits the dog has ..... wide runner, railer, so you can work out where the "clear runs" are, and it must be up to the grade it's competing in. If it's up in grade then usually it's going to have a couple more for company going to the first turn.