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Originally Posted by Barny
LG, you know as well as I do the risks. How'd you go WHEN two in a row get rolled. How's you psyche for starters, not to mention that fact that you now need probs 8 winners in a row ..... You can look at this as much as you like on paper LG ..... It's not a Term Deposit we're looking at here !!
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That's just 'the thing' here, Barny - as with all games of chance, the concept of risk is partly mechanical = stats,logic etc and partly subjective = feelings, thoughts, conditioning etc Which means I don't just know what is in your head on risk.. how can I when we have 2 different approaches, perceptions etc ??
Same as it ever will be.
However, if there is a structure in place to manage risk and clean execution on this PLUS the S/R is positive over the longer run for
all selections i.e.
before we get selective on the events we wish to follow, select etc, then there is at least
some chance of coming out ahead at this end of the book OR at worst, the potential to make a smaller loss imho
LG
PS I dont have the longer term stats in front of me to concur on needing 8 winners in a row. From what I have seen to date (which isn't much), a run of 6 might just do the trick!
PSS don't get me started on TD's !! There are far more 'safer bets' with a higher probability of a 'real return' than these..You may find that for this reason alone, a TD is far more complex an instrument than what we are discussing here?