Hi Partypooper,

Target betting is progression betting by another name.

We [most of the regulars here anyway] all know that the progression, regardless how it's done is mathematically inferior in profit/loss terms, to flat stakes betting.

Stopping after a winning bet however [without progression], has psychological merit if nothing else.

Working around the minimum bet/effort repetition theme though, is worth pursuing.

When real odds are less than 50%, the more bets we have the less chance we have of coming out on top. It doesn't take a genius to work that out.

When the odds are worse than 50%, luck is our lady. We have more chance of being lucky once in this instance than we have of being lucky in the average outcome of 100[name your number] results. Long term however we will always eventually loose if we can't improve our overall betting odds.

Having more than one bank just multiplies the problem.

The quest is to achieve a better than 50% chance overall average for all our betting endeavors.

Reducing the number of our bets to minimize reasoning error, would be a step in the right direction of improving our odds. This could be 1 bet a day instead of 5 [or 5 instead of 20] or 1 bet a week instead of 25 etc.

If we sat down and looked at say our 5 bets for the day and rated them as to how we truly consider the winning prospects of each bet, we would find that one or two stand out. Using our outlay for the day on those one or two bets instead of all five would improve long term, our overall winning SR and odds.

The problem for punters [perhaps your real question here] is the nature of the punter, not the nature of maths.

Cheers.


PS: I have been following this theme of reduced betting instances since the 1st. of this month and have turned a loosing year.

My profit is approx. 70% of outlay this month. Some days are no bets and one Saturdays I only had 1 bet [lost]. However yesterday saw 4 bets for 2 wins and on another, 7 bets for 5 wins. Overall my number of bets have reduce by about 70% [same weekly outlay though].



[ This Message was edited by: crash on 2004-05-30 07:59 ]