30th May 2004, 06:00 PM
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Member
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Join Date: Nov 1999
Location: Western Australia
Posts: 2,432
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davez, your point taken and I am doing just that with my main investments, the point of this post is to highlight the effect of treading water, eg. at one stage I was showing a slight loss on T/O this went up and down like a yoyo for 16 weeks before starting to creep ahead.
Good4th, yes the dreaded losing run gives most of us the "runs".
Consider this then, out of 145 weeks there was 13 without a winner. Target to win $60 each week on the 6 contenders backing anything under 3/1 (the average pice of the winners historically) as if it was 3/1, so the bank needed is a maximum of $530 (thats if all selections were 3/1 or under)
It failed 13 times , so total loss = a maximum of $530x13= $6890, but in reality, the figure is something like half of this as the selections are at all prices up to 20/1.
The other 132 weeks we won , so $60 x 132 = $7920.
My reasearch shows that if a stop at a win is employed regardless of the SP, overall the winnings are about equal to $60 a week (just using $60 as an examle as it's $10 per race) as sometimes the win comes at less than 3/1, but not enough to make a great deal of difference, to counteract any horse over 8/1 is backed as if it were 8/1, so when occasionally we hit a winner better than 8/1 the win is greater than $60 to give us our average.
All comments and views welcome!
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