Pretty quiet in here at the moment and I've been busy arbing all over the place, so haven't had time to post much, but here's the next installment.
This is the advanced arbitrage guide:
So here we are looking at Best Odds Guaranteed bookies and seeing if we can lay on Betfair at similar prices.
The catch is that many prices are over the bookies prices and so I was only getting matched on one or two horses and so a long time between winners and lots of commission paid for losers.
Couple that with the fact that at least half the BOG bookies don't accept Aussies, we are left with only five prospects.
Unfortunately, the one's we can't get set with often offer the best odds
So realistically left with two perhaps three bookies to use, and getting the same or less odds on more than one or two selections, especially favoured ones is greatly diminished.
This is because the top three or four fancied make up the largest percentage of the book and Betfair users will usually back a few percent
above early bookies prices, making it locking in a loss unless too many times to catch the benefits of best odds guaranteed drifters that actually go on to win.
The strategy then is to find a BOG bookie that pays 1/4 (a quarter) the place and BOG the win. To date the only bookie that offers this AND pays three places is Bet365. BEWARE: Many BOG bookies offer 1/4 the place but only pay two places.
Using this strategy one can benefit if the horse drifts, but also lay a bit higher for the win if required because the place odds you get are slightly higher.
The rule I use is half a point limit higher on the win portion providing I can lay lower on the place.
For example if a horse is $6.00 with the bookie, we work out the place price to be $2.25 quarter odds as opposed to $2.00 one fifth odds.
So I would lay for the win up to $6.50 instead of $6.00.
It's probably clear as mud, because I understand what I'm doing but it's hard to convey, so here's a real world example in the first race at Ascot (UK) tonight.
Garswood is $3.25 with Bet365 and $3.40 on the exchange.
For a $10 stake I lock in a loss of $1.50 and hope it drifts and wins.
If it wins but doesn't drift I lose $1.50.
If it loses, I lose 0.46 cents in commission.
However, working out the place odds, Bet365 will give me $1.56 place odds.
I've just been matched @ $1.49 on Betfair.
Now the picture looks better.
Garswood wins but doesn't drift, I lose $1.50 the win, but win $0.70 the place. Outcome, lose $0.80 (nearly halved the loss).
Garswood wins and drifts, happy days, I pick up $0.70 plus any profit from it drifting.
Garswood doesn't win but places 2nd or 3rd, I lose $0.46 from betfair win market and win $0.70 from place bet @ Bet365.
Garswood is unplaced, I lose $0.92.
However, if we do this with multiple runners, the losses in commission are reduced.
That's the guts of it.