Privateer,

Iglesia struck a hard track and favourable conditions.

You have to look at avg times that a horse runs - if a horse has ran several times at a certain level - then you can put some weight into the times. One off times mean nothing.

Also, if a horse runs a very fast time - he was usually at its absolute peak and will no doubt drop several lengths next start.

The key is too find horses which are still improving or you expect to maintain a high level.

I would agree that times have limitations and flaws like every other system - but you can't dismiss them just like that.

You have to also consider how a good time was achieved - did the horse have a cosy run? Where they running fast times all day??

The best horses to look for are horses that raced on the speed, ran good time, while the other on-pace horses dropped away. Finnigan was a good example of this.

The easiest bets in the world are when you have one speed horse in a race, who can control the pace of the race - very hard to beat.

Examples:
Sunline in Doncaster, and 2 cox plates.
Lord Essex prior to this over 1500m when he beat Shogun Lodge.

When you find one good speed horse in a race of backmarkers - BET WITH YOUR EARS PINNED BACK.