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Originally Posted by Barny
I dont have the same info as you do UB, but here goes.
VIC 86 seln's for 16 wins
NSW 63 seln's for 7 wins
I use > $4.00
The Max Div for Vic is high at $37.40 but the profit is $62.50 so it still shows a POT without that win in the calculations.
Interestingly, the PLACE LOT is identical for both states at 5% LOT
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Barney at least thats a good start to lookm at the numbers.
So in VIC you had a profit of 72% so a return of $147.90. Average odds of the winners was $9.24
In NSW you had a loss of 46% so a return of $34.00. Average odds of the winner was $4.85
So straight away you can see the average winner price was a lot less in NSW which could contribute to the difference.
Lets assume the average price is somewhere in between around $7. That means you had expected winners for VIC of approx 12. For NSW it had estimated winners of 9.
In both bases the winners is not much more or less then the expected winners and in that case you could assume the deviations are just due to random chance.
A chi test for NSW results are 47% likely to be due to pure luck.
A chi test for VIC results are 27% likely to be due to pure luck.
Anything higher then 5% for a chi test means the results are likely to be random.
So in summary, its likely the lower odds + random chance has caused the major deviation between NSW and VIC.