On another site their computer model had the bullbogs a 53% winning chance, but sometimes you have to go on form not what the computer selects, i noticed they also pick a few outsiders in the afl, not sure but it might go on H2D and other stats right back to the beginning, which can be misleading as the league has changed a lot lately and they dont really apply that heavily now days. please correct me if i'm wrong about how yours or other models run.