10th November 2012, 11:41 AM
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Member
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Join Date: Sep 2011
Posts: 1,534
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Lord Greystoke
1. How big a sample with a strike of say 75%-80% ?
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I go with gut feel but I would need at least 300 for a 75% strike rate.
You could use at least 200 winners as the general rule. So if your strike rate is expected to be 75% then you get a winner every 1.33 races determined by 1/.75. So in this case you would want at least 266 selections.
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Originally Posted by Lord Greystoke
2. Do you have an equation for this so that we can check different SR's
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See above.
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Originally Posted by Lord Greystoke
3. Please clarify your logic regards point 5 in relation to sample size and odds
X bets should be at least 30 bets or 5/(1/[average odds]) and no more then 5% of the total number of bets.
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You determine your POT for each expected 5 winners as a minimum. So if you had average odds of $10 then it would require at least 5/(1/10) = 50 selections. If your average odds was $2 then you require at least 5/(1/2) = 10 seelctions.
Personally I use a minimum of 30 bets per sequence. Lets assume I havea system which has 900 bets tested. I can divide this up into 30 bets each sequence. You work out the profit for each 30 bets sequence and plot it on a bar graph. You should see most of the POT's be around a certain figure and show a bell curve. If it doesn't show a bell curve then you have not done enough testing.
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Originally Posted by Lord Greystoke
PS any chance of a resurrection for the system tester in 2013?
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I do need to get this going again. I haven't had a chance to set it up though.
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