Hi Guys, plays for today and below i'll reply to your posts:
Sunshine Coast - Race 6
No.
9 Mishani Warrior
Goulburn - Race 1
No.
1 All Conquering
Goulburn - Race 2
No.
1 Tiger Territory
Goulburn - Race 6
No.
3 Grecian Melody
Goulburn - Race 7
No.
17 Browden
Ballarat - Race 4
No.
10 Gypsy's Best
Ballarat - Race 5
No.
3 Fantastic Porscha
Ballarat - Race 7
No.
3 Hot Lover
Ballarat - Race 8
No.
4 Sertorius
Ballarat - Race 9
No.
10 Rare Bear
Clare - Race 6
No.
5 Tasteofenergy
Ok in relation to the discussion, my ratings/plays aren't built on chasing odds or strike rate, it's about finding the horse with all the right elements/form to win the race whether thats a $10 horse or a $2 horse. Maybe I should look more into only betting overlay's etc however my testing shows my current method works and overall my average odds make up for the strike rate.
For instance in the last week or so when I haven't been having the best time with my ratings in terms of being profitable, there's been a very high rate of placings. Also yesterday I unfortunately was playing with the track conditions at MV which lead me to bet Muoro instead of Lord of Brazil. So I went from potentially winning @ $6 odds to losing my stake which was quite annoying and something i've addressed. Also note while the win strike rate was back at a decent level (7 winners from 22 bets), there were also 8 placings in addition to that, a lot of them coming 2nd. This makes me feel like i'm certainly around the mark and that my ratings haven't suddenly got worse, but just that they are going through a rough patch which ill be riding out. Essentially if i'm on LOB yesterday and 1 or 2 more of those placings get up, i've had a really profitable day.
I by no means have a complete polished product which is why i'm live betting it with small amounts to adjust and tweak moving forward so I can eventually through more money at it. But I do feel i'm pretty close to where I need to be.
demodocus, i've got some queries on your service, am I able to email you?
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