While these stats are a very useful guide, you must ask yourself which roughies were REAL roughies and which were overlooked by the betting public.

Some roughies deserve to be roughies...they pop up once in a blue moon with no real form or class.

Others have class races to their credit and their form may not be as bad as what the formguide says.

For example, Form is 5963. The horse may have finished 9th on a track surface which did not suit (Heavy etc) and in reality may have finished no further back than 4 lengths at those starts.

A horse can finish 4th 15 lengths behind the winner or a length behind.

My point is that upsets in races USUALLY occur because of a misinterpretation of data.
The real odds of a horse may be well under what is on offer. That is where the value lies and at the end of the day where the profit lies.
There is no value betting the favorite or the first four in betting always and disregarding those at longer prices.

The odds are stacked against punters and that is why the vast majority lose. The only way to turn the odds in your favour is to get the "overs".

Now I am not saying don't back the favorite because if you rate it an even money chance and you can get 5/2 on it then it is a good bet.