That's an extremely interesting thought Try Try Again. I've spent years looking at single races and wondering what would happen if you followed the first three for the next campaign. But no, not in this case.

The qualifying run is NOT the run with the best POT. It could be the run with a sensational POT, but then it restricts the number of selections for runs two, three and four after qualifying, and it's not representative of what is seen as a normal campaign for a 3, 4 or even 5 year old. I've sacrificed a really good POT on the qualifying run so that the rest of the runs have what would be a normal campaign, one or two bad runs, maybe not, it caters for a succession of wins too, increasing in class and maybe distance, not that it matters. I'll give you an example ..... The qualifying run includes a minimum and maximum number of runs, then the next run will have horses who have their number of runs in the range increase from the previous run (obviously) so on until the 5 th run of the campaign. These form one of the base filters. If a horse is still running at "at least" its 5th run this time in, then the trainer must think it's a chance.

The qualifying run is the key. I'm sure that this concept could be applied differently in terms of the filters I use for the qualifying run, but my filters select horses that produce a POT overall, that is over their next few runs prior to going for a spell.