Gee,you make a pretty strong case right there to give the betting game away.What stats should you in fact use to make the selection?
On those statistics,my prices need to be completely reversed.
Similar with the Geelong game.I have the Cats 5 points better than the Roos at the moment.
My guts told me to give the Cats a 7 point home advantage.Surely your stats aren't telling me to give the Roos the advantage.
Maybe the advantage should be zero.

I think we all need to analyze where we went wrong,after the event,rather than celebrating where we went right.