3rd December 2012, 09:23 AM
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Member
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Join Date: Mar 2012
Posts: 1,237
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by aussielongboat
only if rigorously back tested on fresh data - bookmakers love people with data bases, computers and back testing.
a nip here a tuck there and lo and behold you have discovered the path to eternal riches - until you do it in real time with your hard earned.
"but it all looked so logical - what could have happened" you say  and then 
I have filing cabinets of "good" logical sensible systems that won for 2-3 years and then started a slide and never came back.
And i mean never came back as in over 10 years of later testing.
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Giday Aussielongboat.
What if all successful systems have bright patches or clear winning runs now and then (timing being variable and unpredictable) and no amount of back testing can change this.. what then?
If this were the case, could we allow for this via 3 step process...
1. continue to rigorously search for successful systems (rather than test them ad finitum to see if they will run hot until eternity?)
2. track them and understand / detect when they are 'on' and when they are 'off', coming on and coming off etc
3. create a portfolio of these and run them together eg some on, some off, others warming up or cooling down etc to increase activity and decrease likelihood of giving it all back to the bookie, tote, corporate, tom etc etc
Just my thoughts.
LG
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The trick isn't finding profitable angles, it's finding ones you will bet through the ups and downs - UB
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