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Originally Posted by Lord Greystoke
Giday Aussielongboat.
What if all successful systems have bright patches or clear winning runs now and then (timing being variable and unpredictable) and no amount of back testing can change this.. what then?
LG
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my view is that if it back tested over a couple of sets of fresh data and it looks OK then it is probabaly OK - i mean what else could you do
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Originally Posted by Lord Greystoke
If this were the case, could we allow for this via 3 step process...
1. continue to rigorously search for successful systems (rather than test them ad finitum to see if they will run hot until eternity?)
LG
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probably do both -search and monitor - main edge here is to build an approach where you can data gather, test and monitor efficiently. i run 180 concurrent on every horse race covered by tattsbet and tabulate the results automatically. 1 button macro.
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Originally Posted by Lord Greystoke
2. track them and understand / detect when they are 'on' and when they are 'off', coming on and coming off etc
LG
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If you could do that regularly you would be set for life and would avoid the gamblers curse - run of outs.
If you avoid the run of outs - you don't destroy your bank, your POT and/or your sanity.
Probably the most difficult pursuit of all
IMHO
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Originally Posted by Lord Greystoke
3. create a portfolio of these and run them together eg some on, some off, others warming up or cooling down etc to increase activity and decrease likelihood of giving it all back to the bookie, tote, corporate, tom etc etc
LG
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that's pretty similia to what I do now - run about 10 different approaches concurrently - hoping that on average i will be in front.
as far as warming up or cooling down etc. i have no idea - they either win or they lose - doesn't seem to be, as far as i can detect so far, that it is that logical or organised.
It just happens or it doesn't happen.
The only thing i have noticed is that if i am going a bit average i usually get some long priced place getters - i.e $8+ for place dividend before i get some recovery winners. i got 3 yesterday so i am a bit chirpy for today.
LOL
what i have also learned so far is that it is "darkest before the dawn" meaning that just when you give up you are on the eve of a recovery - with one BIG proviso - that you are using a tested and proven approach - otherwise it is just down , down and down again and you can end up in debtors prison or the asylum or both.
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Originally Posted by Lord Greystoke
Just my thoughts.
LG
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no sweat all good
