Thread: One For Barny
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Old 11th December 2012, 01:07 PM
TheSchmile TheSchmile is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Barny
TheSchmile

"How do you know your $12 and $23 winners represented their true odds and were not overbet?"

.... semantics aside, you know what I'm getting at.

In short, I'm a genius Barny! ha ha

Sorry I do digress, a fair point you make.

On Sunday, I coupled a few 'Barny-type' factors into my minimum acceptable price. In the race with the $23 winner, the favourite was grossly overbet in my opinion and didn't run a place in a field with <9 runners.

The fav's profile:
It had a win SR of <20% and a place strike rate of <40%, was a sprinter and was running in a low class race.

I completely agree with you that one should look past the obvious when doing the form. If a horse has a 211 formline and opens at $2.50, chances are every mug in Aus will be aboard and the price will often come into unders. If the race is of low standard and the horse shows little sign of further improvement e.g. 5+ runs from a spell, this generally represents a good time to look outside the square and find a horse or two to beat the hotpot.
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