Unfortunately I can't answer this question for you, but what I can tell you is that when i accumulated some data this year back to April, on the racings I applied my ratings almost all winners (not necessarily favourites, just the winner of each race) had won in the conditions.

It was extremely rare that the winner of the race had either a) not ran in the conditions or b) not won in the conditions.

Just some food for thought, not sure if that helps what your after or not. Sorry that I cant provide any figures but i'm sure someone here with a database can help you out.