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Old 10th June 2004, 09:14 PM
Mr J Mr J is offline
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Join Date: Jan 1970
Posts: 759
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"I know that it seems too good to be true"

I trust ozmium. They've provided me great services for tennis and MLB I have no reason to think they'd provide anything less for horse racing.

"I am not interested in the sportsbetting - too easy to be biased"

Not if you can approach it in a professional manner, which most people can't :wink: All my plays come from other cappers or my computer models so there's no way for me to be biased.

"Perhaps a second bank could bet at say 10% but this is pretty risky in the long term - ie high probability of wipe out."

Depends what the longterm edge of Super Specials are. If they were to keep netting 50% winnings and 50% POT a 10% stake is justified. 5% on Super Specials is VERY safe. This is assuming you resize very reguarly.

"Regarding betting strategies, back testing of all super specials would provide a maximum return betting at around 13% of bank, with no reductiuon in stakings. I have not done any testing on the gold specials."

Yep 13.8. That's Full Kelly. 50%POT over 80 picks is also a statistically significant sample.

"Firstly, if you are worried about bet sizes, I think that IAS is probably the largest bookie in Australia. I thing that they offer Top Fluctiuation betting with a $5,000 win limit."

Are there many other books that offer competitive odds? If so I could also just spread my stake over several books.
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