I do not really know how to reply to this conversation or if I can add anything to it.

But, here goes. The more I look at the race form pre race and study it after the race is over plus look at the betting market and the betting activity and the end race result I have to say that I am finding it difficult to see many common denominators.

We have talked on here in other threads of following the crowd. First fav wins more then the second etc. Number One saddlecloth wins more then number two etc. and so on. These statistics never change, and have remained constant all over the world and for over fifty years and more.

We hear that the Fav is under bet and the longshot is overbet for its correct odds. Yet,we still not tilt the table to our advantage.

We are told to only bet when we have value, like if we price a horse at $3 and you can get better , then it is a good bet.

Unfortunately, this is not all working out for me. Now, I have had a few systems going and keep tweaking them to the point where I feel I am close enough to where I can be on a winning system or at least not a massive losing one.

But one thing that I find strange is that looking back over my records, small as they maybe, the short odds eg Under $4.00 horses are no more successful then the $6 to $12 bracket.

The fact that a horse is say $3 does not give me a three times better strike rate then on paying $9. When I look at the horses that beat these short price horses I sought of see where Barny is coming from.

The only tweaking I am looking for now is to find some other mysterious factors that the public are ignoring and are ( not form related ).

All horses have some form, regardless of how unexposed it is, otherwise the owners and trainers would not persist with it. But for a non form related system to be successful it would only be able to survive by being market driven in reverse.

To be successful, you would have to have some real longshgots inthere to overcome the expected long losing streak. But as I have said earlier , in my experience the $3 shot is no more likely then the $9 one.

Making sense, probably not, possibly a lot of cobblers, but I feel I have tightened my selections up enough, I just need to release the brakes a little to find a few more elusive longer price winners that can turn a struggling system into a winning one.

If we tighten up to much we cut our chances considerably especially, in my case, when the shorter priced ones do not have a better strike rate than my longer priced ones.

That is the reason I was interested in what Barny was saying. We all have different view points, but I know, if I keep doing what I have always done then I know what the final result will be. Just a slight tweak is what I am looking for.


Star