28th December 2012, 06:05 PM
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Member
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Join Date: Nov 2011
Posts: 102
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Star
The only tweaking I am looking for now is to find some other mysterious factors that the public are ignoring and are ( not form related ).
All horses have some form, regardless of how unexposed it is, otherwise the owners and trainers would not persist with it. But for a non form related system to be successful it would only be able to survive by being market driven in reverse.
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Star, you are closer to your answer than you think.
You already seem to have a good rating method created. I would recommend you use this to find a good horse where everyone else isn't doing the same level of work as you.
Do you think the public pays more respect to a BM55 at Gilgandra on Tuesday over an Open race at Flemington on Saturday? The focus on major races is intense by both public and bookie. As a result they trim the markets perfectly. The focus at Gilgandra would be a few knock-abouts at the local. Even the bookies are too lazy to frame their own markets for these races. You get quite a head start here.
On the races I prefer, horses in the sharp end of the market (up to $5.00) have paid 5.5% more than quality races so far in December. That's quite an edge and it's not form related. It's mob related.
Perhaps if you apply your rating skill to true handicaps (no maidens, mares only, colts only, etc) in events up to BM72 or CL2-3 you may put your systems into profit.
Your skill at rating a horse will beat a non-focused recreational punter every time. And the added bonus is there are more poor quality races than good races all week long.
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