Thread: AFL r12
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  #30  
Old 11th June 2004, 11:46 PM
Mr J Mr J is offline
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Join Date: Jan 1970
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You're right, my opinion has no influence on my picks. I like that in a way, means I'm unbiased and it's alot easier to be diciplined. I also don't know much about AFL so my opinions wouldn't be worth anything there anyway :wink:

I have a formula for the prices as well. I type in my predicted spreads, turns them into predicted outcome %, tells you what the breakeven bet is, what the 5% overlay is and what perceived edge your bet has. Also finds the breakeven line according to the bookies. I just need accurate figures as I was estimating 2.5% based on pinnacles numbers.

E.g. St george. My predicted spread was St George -2.66. If each point was worth 2.5%, then that'd give StG a 56.65% chance. At 56.7% chance, the fair price is roughly 1.77. My 5% buffer then says to take any price 1.85 or above. I got 2.02 and won :wink:

Wouldn't mind comparing to Moes to see if I have any errors.

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