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Originally Posted by Lord Greystoke
POT from LOT... can it be done ?
eg turning a loosing strategy into a winner over the longer term by changing the way one stakes the selections, without changing the selection method itself.
Many times I have seen the merest suggestion of this gunned down on here. Can't seem to remember if anyone has actually provided the gunpowder to back up their stand being common sense, maths, statistics ??
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Think I actually get this now - having banged my head up against multiple threads over the last week, examining the various viewpoints, discussions, arguments, rants, watching individuals openly berate themselves in the corner of a room (including myself)...
Synopsis as follows:
1. A system that generates a LOT at LS will eventually break the bank, no matter what staking strategy is applied
2 Any form of progressive staking plan is just a multiple of betting at level stakes i.e. it will add leverage to the upside = magnify the gains, but will also ramp up the the downside risk i.e. ramp up the losses
3. Human psychology with it's inbuilt bias towards seeking (and expecting) positive outcomes suggests that many of us would prefer to believe that LOT to POT / wine to water is possible and also that it is within our power to make this happen, despite the proof / maths / stats / any cold-hard logic put in front of us.
4. None of us have unlimited resources to keep feeding the increasing stake requirement - even if we did, finite market pools and an individual's reduced appetite for taking on increasing risk would make a positive outcome unlikely
5. Cheating the hangman = coming out ahead is still possible over the short term / initial period however, but this will depend largely on (a) lady luck and (b) a small LOT at Level Stakes to begin with of say 5-10% = easier to flip (or swing*) into a POT scenario eg choosing where to place the initial bet
Just my thoughts.
Cheers LG
* The aha moment for me? I 'saw' a pendulum swinging gently, but with a slight bias to the left or right.. and equated this to betting at level stakes for a small POT or LOT. Now add some energy to it = a progressive staking system and depending on where you are standing (and when?), you might be witnessing a large(r) gain or large(r) loss. If one is lucky / clever / organised enough in advance to find himself on the 'right' side of a big swing at a given point in time, and has the fortitude to stop the pendulum in mid air = quit while still in POT territory (a BOT would make this easier?),
then at that precise point in time they have converted a loosing system into a winner.
This being possible over the short-medium term, if one is prepared to walk away from a temporary winning position by :
(a) giving up on the illusion of a much bigger outcome to come
(b) correctly assessing the reality that to continue playing equates to 100% certainty that the pendulum string would end up tightly around one's neck =
Impossible to make a profit on turnover over the longer run, for the reasons given above.
Now, I reckon it's about time I took myself over to the corner of the room and started berating myself... eh beton?!! More gin please, hold the tonic.