"all that XXXX (& other substances) clouds their thinking" certainly applies to most of the people I knew when I lived in Brisbane (for one year)! But before all you Queenslanders get upset, I'm very fond of Brisbane and I always go for Queensland in the State of Origin!

I think a lot of punters tend to back horses they know, i.e. the local ones, therefore when horses that have won at the strong provincial circuits of Gold and Sunshine coasts, they are often ignored.

Re: Sydney - you can get good longshotwinners often from horses that have run well at Newcastle and Canberra (I don't really like Kembla form!)

By the way, how do you define longshot? 10/1 or more, 50/1 or more, 100/1 or more? If you mean just 10/1 or more, it's probably simply just a case of Brisbane often having much larger fields than Sydney & Melbourne.

Who knows?

PS: I agree with Chief that Pukeko will go well!