View Single Post
  #11  
Old 28th February 2013, 10:19 AM
garyf garyf is offline
Banned
 
Join Date: Oct 2011
Posts: 366
Smile

Quote:
Originally Posted by evajb001
I'd be surprised if distance over 1400m has too much effect, my guess/assumption would be that you generally find larger fields over that distance which would be the contributing factor to favourites winning less, not the distance itself.

Happy to stand corrected though.

What would be of interest is the following tests although it would be time consuming:

Favourite stats at 1400m based on size of field (i.e. 7,8,9,10,11,12,13,14 and 14+ runners)

Then do the same for 1600m and so on, I've suggested 14+ because i've found myself doing my ratings that 8-10 is the sweet spot for picking winners with ratings, 10-12 offers some value, 12-14 it gets quite difficult and 14+ poses to much potential for issues out of the jockey/trainers/horses control.
Hi Eva.

I actually rang Greg Carpenter (Chief handicapper V.R.C.) on the matter of,
Of how he and his team split field size, and distances, when assessing form and weights a few months ago, he was only to happy to discuss the issues.
This is how they do it.

Field Size.

=<8=Small.
9-12= Medium
13=> Large.

Distance.

=<1300.
1301-1800
1801-2200
2201=>

I split all my ratings into these field/sizes and distances when and where applicable.

Hope this helps.

Cheers.
Garyf.
Reply With Quote