
19th June 2004, 11:49 AM
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Member
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Join Date: Jan 1970
Location: Perth
Posts: 29
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The formula I use is as follows,It's easy to use once you've done it a couple of times.
Predicting the number of losing runs of a given length, against a given strike rate:
X = N x S^2 x (1 - S)^L,
Where:-
X = Numner of losing runs of length L
N = Number of results.
S = Strikerate (as a decimal fraction).
^ = To the power of.
L = Length of losing run you wish to investigate.
So for example, if you have 100 results and a strikerate of 30% and you want to know how many losing runs of 4 you should have, the calculation becomes:-
X = 100 x 0.3^2 x (1-0.3)^4
= 2.16
and for losing runs of 10,
X = 100 x 0.3^2 x (1-0.3)^10
= 0.25
This last calculation means that you have a 25% chance of 1 losing run of 10 in your 100 results, so if you continue with this system you would expect to have 1 losing run of 10 at 400 results.
It's interesting to note that it doesn't matter how high your strikerate is (except for 100%), if you work to enough decimal places you will always get a positive value, thus indicating that however small the probability, there is no length of losing run your results cannot theoretically contain.
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