4th March 2013, 08:21 AM
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Banned
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Join Date: Feb 2013
Posts: 755
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Laying the Field
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Originally Posted by beton
TO
I ran 12 months of Betfair results. Laying the fav only, moving rocks around the paddock. Laying the top two a negative. Laying the top three a negative.
Laying all =<$20 a bigger negative. Laying the field a positive, but be prepared for one losing week in four and four losing months. This was every race. I know that there are races in there that would not pay ever and a culling exercise could straighten some of the bumps.
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Hi Beton, I too have looked at these results. The culling required is extensive, you need to remove races that don't have SP betting. The odds shown for non SP races are some sort of weighted average and wouldn't be available to us. For example 13 Oct R3 Ararat, a non SP race :
Betfair database odds: 130 18 23 20 20 2.9
Back odds on day: 85 21 24 19 17 2.9
Lay odds on day: 770 21 90 20 36 2.92
I'm sure Stugots or someone could write a macro to cull it, matter of twisting their arm! I'm not sure what percentage of races in total would be non-SP, maybe 15 - 20%? it would be interesting to do the excercise. With my excel literacy I'd have to do every race manually and report back at Xmas time.
Cheers RP
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