12th April 2013, 10:28 AM
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Member
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Join Date: Mar 2012
Posts: 1,227
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by beton
My two bobs worth.
The AAP prepost has a book of 150% plus. At jump the book is nominally 100% less the rake. In order to do this the prepost prices must as a whole lenghten to achieve the 100% (83% tab) (Betfair has commission out after the event).
Only those with the best chance will buck the lengthening trend in which case those lengthening will have to lengthen further. Herein lies the dilemna- how to pick the shortening ones and get better odds before they shorten to the point of negative return.
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Beton, that's an interesting question you raise(if I have read it correctly!). What is your best guess / stab at an answer, If I may ask?
I have been looking at this very subject of late and come to the conclusion that dutch betting a small subset of firmers or those level at open or within + x% tolerance might do the trick. I have also been experimenting with 1 or 2 filters to narrow the list down i.e. narrowing the field down initially as per PP price and eliminating weaker selections from the end shortlist.
LG
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The trick isn't finding profitable angles, it's finding ones you will bet through the ups and downs - UB
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